本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛First my English is poor and sometime I can’t express my ideas clearly. I try to do it.
About the Market:
1. I don’t agree market will trade between ranges that is average flat. I think if somebody says that, it should be a misleading. Actually, market is trading a down range in a downtrend channel (I have posted the chart of Nasdaq channel in the StockTalk site: http://groups.msn.com/stocktalk).
2. DOW Industry: Some traders said I am crazy to say Dow would be 5000. I don’t want to argue with that. In Chinese idioms, where we fall, where we get up and where we get up and where we fall. From economy views, we got the bubble began in March of 1995 and the market should fall to the point of 1993. At that time, Dow is 4000 pts. Nasdaq is 700 or so. I had one article of this forum analysis of imbalance meaning trouble between Dow & Naz. Now, we can see the results. In next few years, Dow will down in big pace but Naz will down in small pace. Dow 8300-4000=4300 down pts wait for us. You maybe say I am too pessimistic. Ok, how about 5000 pts for Dow. I got the pool from CNBC, 63% of people said Dow will go up to 10000, and 37% of people said will Dow will go down to 5000. Remember, masses always are wrong. The 5000 pts is very very possible because the economy become unstable in the world as well as US. If from TA 61.8% retracement frorm Dow, from highest pts 11750-(11750 X61.8%)=4488.5 that is less than 5000. So, Dow 4300, 4488.5, 5800, 7000, 7500, 8250 (six down levels from now) should be big supports. You can post the numbers at your trading desktop and let us see the truth in the future. Current, Dow must breakout the 8250. Some traders argue with me the prediction without time line. Ok, same as the Chinese idioms. March of 2000-March of 1993=7 years. At the mid of 7 years, we should down to the mid of 7500 pts that is August of 2003(March of 2000 +3.5 years). But if the war happens, I believe Dow will go down below 7000 fast and trend to 5800.
3. Nasdaq: Naz is easier to analysis. Bubble has almost done. However, Naz still have the 570 pts to go down (1270-700=570 pts). Suppose Naz had gone to 700 but Dow still is in big down trend, I suggest 650 pts is last pts to down. I believe Naz can’t down below 750. So, Naz 650, 700, 810, 1000, 1250 should be big support. You can also post in front of your desktop. Current, Naz must breakout 1250 and trend to 1000. I think the down time line is slowly than Dow.
4. I don’t want analysis of SPX, pls see in StockTalk.
About the Economy Environment:
One sentence to conclude the current market: Like Japan’s bubble, the economy will symmetrical go down with gentleman grace painful style. I don’t want argue with some economy analysts especially government officials who are always singing economy is recovering. I know the simple truth: consumers will collapse finally and it will give every economy aspects with heavy beats. Nothing is helpful for Zero’s interest rate, nothing is helpful for the stimulus policy. And nothing can prevent the comprehensive bad effectiveness from the economy laws.
About the stock investment:
Losing money is the main task for traders or investors in the stock market even if you think you are smart. If you want to beat the street, the best way is to leave the street. CSCO will be $2.1, and INTC $5, MSFT,12.6, GE $9, ERICY disappear, LUOTC, T disppear, GM$25, NEM$128….
About the business:
Corporate America’s business will face long pain. The biggest layoff will appear again. And thousands of companies will go to bankrupt.
About the copyright:
Although I don’t like the business styles of someone, I welcome to use my articles here that is no copyrights.
About our friendship:
Yes, the friendship is more important than doing business and although I have some wrong mind, I am a good guy who can be a good friend.
About you:
You are watching this article and if you have no comments, you are greedy because you only take and never give. And I warmly welcome you to discuss.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
About the Market:
1. I don’t agree market will trade between ranges that is average flat. I think if somebody says that, it should be a misleading. Actually, market is trading a down range in a downtrend channel (I have posted the chart of Nasdaq channel in the StockTalk site: http://groups.msn.com/stocktalk).
2. DOW Industry: Some traders said I am crazy to say Dow would be 5000. I don’t want to argue with that. In Chinese idioms, where we fall, where we get up and where we get up and where we fall. From economy views, we got the bubble began in March of 1995 and the market should fall to the point of 1993. At that time, Dow is 4000 pts. Nasdaq is 700 or so. I had one article of this forum analysis of imbalance meaning trouble between Dow & Naz. Now, we can see the results. In next few years, Dow will down in big pace but Naz will down in small pace. Dow 8300-4000=4300 down pts wait for us. You maybe say I am too pessimistic. Ok, how about 5000 pts for Dow. I got the pool from CNBC, 63% of people said Dow will go up to 10000, and 37% of people said will Dow will go down to 5000. Remember, masses always are wrong. The 5000 pts is very very possible because the economy become unstable in the world as well as US. If from TA 61.8% retracement frorm Dow, from highest pts 11750-(11750 X61.8%)=4488.5 that is less than 5000. So, Dow 4300, 4488.5, 5800, 7000, 7500, 8250 (six down levels from now) should be big supports. You can post the numbers at your trading desktop and let us see the truth in the future. Current, Dow must breakout the 8250. Some traders argue with me the prediction without time line. Ok, same as the Chinese idioms. March of 2000-March of 1993=7 years. At the mid of 7 years, we should down to the mid of 7500 pts that is August of 2003(March of 2000 +3.5 years). But if the war happens, I believe Dow will go down below 7000 fast and trend to 5800.
3. Nasdaq: Naz is easier to analysis. Bubble has almost done. However, Naz still have the 570 pts to go down (1270-700=570 pts). Suppose Naz had gone to 700 but Dow still is in big down trend, I suggest 650 pts is last pts to down. I believe Naz can’t down below 750. So, Naz 650, 700, 810, 1000, 1250 should be big support. You can also post in front of your desktop. Current, Naz must breakout 1250 and trend to 1000. I think the down time line is slowly than Dow.
4. I don’t want analysis of SPX, pls see in StockTalk.
About the Economy Environment:
One sentence to conclude the current market: Like Japan’s bubble, the economy will symmetrical go down with gentleman grace painful style. I don’t want argue with some economy analysts especially government officials who are always singing economy is recovering. I know the simple truth: consumers will collapse finally and it will give every economy aspects with heavy beats. Nothing is helpful for Zero’s interest rate, nothing is helpful for the stimulus policy. And nothing can prevent the comprehensive bad effectiveness from the economy laws.
About the stock investment:
Losing money is the main task for traders or investors in the stock market even if you think you are smart. If you want to beat the street, the best way is to leave the street. CSCO will be $2.1, and INTC $5, MSFT,12.6, GE $9, ERICY disappear, LUOTC, T disppear, GM$25, NEM$128….
About the business:
Corporate America’s business will face long pain. The biggest layoff will appear again. And thousands of companies will go to bankrupt.
About the copyright:
Although I don’t like the business styles of someone, I welcome to use my articles here that is no copyrights.
About our friendship:
Yes, the friendship is more important than doing business and although I have some wrong mind, I am a good guy who can be a good friend.
About you:
You are watching this article and if you have no comments, you are greedy because you only take and never give. And I warmly welcome you to discuss.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net