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财经专辑
Strong economic rebound likely to fuel 100-basis-point increase by end of 2002
Borrowing costs are likely to climb at least a full percentage point by the end of the year, economists said yesterday after the Bank of Canada got the ball rolling yesterday by raising its overnight lending rate 25 basis points.
Most economists said the increase, to 2.25%, is just the first of several expected before year-end as the central bank retreats from its most aggressive round of interest-rate cuts since the 1960s.
The rate reversal comes as the economy shows strong signs of rebounding. The upshot is likely to be prime rates in the range of 5%, economists said.
"The Bank of Canada couldn't justify holding rates at four-decade lows in the face of a huge quarter for employment gains," said Avery Shenfield, an economist at CIBC World Markets. The first three quarters of the year saw the biggest quarterly employment gain since 1987.
"With the Canadian and U.S. economies squarely on the mend, we expect that the bank will increase its key policy rate by another 25 basis points in June, and a further 100 basis points before the end of the year," added Marc Lévesque, a senior economist at TD Bank Financial Group.
The move also bodes well for the Canadian dollar, which has been limping along at historic lows but may be poised for a sustained, if not heroic, rally. The dollar rose after the announcement, ending the day with a gain of US0.24¢ at US63.24. Mr. Lévesque predicted it would hit US65¢ by year-end.
Economists predicted the Bank of Canada will remain ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve in hiking interest rates throughout 2002, maintaining higher rates here that make it more attractive for foreign investors to park cash in Canadian dollars. The equivalent Fed rate is now 50 basis points lower than in Canada and not expected to rise until late June.
"This [rate hike] certainly increases the likelihood the Canadian dollar will gain ground," Mr. Lévesque said. "This suggests there will be a spread that sticks."
Economists cautioned that even if their 100-basis-point prediction proves correct, rates will still remain at impressive lows.
"We're moving from Depression-environment interest rates to rates that historically served in recessions," said David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch and Co.
Not everyone was thrilled with the move. The Bank of Montreal's Sherry Cooper suggested the central bank acted precipitously and ahead of enough solid economic data to be sure the buoyant mood is justified.
"I am disappointed with the Bank's actions, which come at a time of great financial and political uncertainty," she said. "The Bank may well have jumped the gun."
However, she added, "little harm will be done. The real question is how much more tightening is likely this year."
Her answer, too, was a full percentage point.
Mr. Rosenberg rejected the idea the move, the first increase since May, 2000, could endanger economic growth.
"Prime lending rates at 4.0% are still 100 basis points below the levels prevailing in the 1930s depression ... the tightening will hurt the economy about as much as a mosquito bite on an elephant," he said.
But retailers weren't so sure. Mark Cohen, chief executive of Sears Canada Inc., told analysts on a conference call that "it will put some brake on [sales of] big-ticket items."
But Mr. Rosenberg said there remains room to raise rates further, and said there is evidence in the Bank's own comments yesterday to back him up. The central bank referred to the "substantial" stimulus that remains in place and said it was only "modestly reducing" the amount of stimulus, he pointed out.
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财经专辑
Strong economic rebound likely to fuel 100-basis-point increase by end of 2002
Borrowing costs are likely to climb at least a full percentage point by the end of the year, economists said yesterday after the Bank of Canada got the ball rolling yesterday by raising its overnight lending rate 25 basis points.
Most economists said the increase, to 2.25%, is just the first of several expected before year-end as the central bank retreats from its most aggressive round of interest-rate cuts since the 1960s.
The rate reversal comes as the economy shows strong signs of rebounding. The upshot is likely to be prime rates in the range of 5%, economists said.
"The Bank of Canada couldn't justify holding rates at four-decade lows in the face of a huge quarter for employment gains," said Avery Shenfield, an economist at CIBC World Markets. The first three quarters of the year saw the biggest quarterly employment gain since 1987.
"With the Canadian and U.S. economies squarely on the mend, we expect that the bank will increase its key policy rate by another 25 basis points in June, and a further 100 basis points before the end of the year," added Marc Lévesque, a senior economist at TD Bank Financial Group.
The move also bodes well for the Canadian dollar, which has been limping along at historic lows but may be poised for a sustained, if not heroic, rally. The dollar rose after the announcement, ending the day with a gain of US0.24¢ at US63.24. Mr. Lévesque predicted it would hit US65¢ by year-end.
Economists predicted the Bank of Canada will remain ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve in hiking interest rates throughout 2002, maintaining higher rates here that make it more attractive for foreign investors to park cash in Canadian dollars. The equivalent Fed rate is now 50 basis points lower than in Canada and not expected to rise until late June.
"This [rate hike] certainly increases the likelihood the Canadian dollar will gain ground," Mr. Lévesque said. "This suggests there will be a spread that sticks."
Economists cautioned that even if their 100-basis-point prediction proves correct, rates will still remain at impressive lows.
"We're moving from Depression-environment interest rates to rates that historically served in recessions," said David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch and Co.
Not everyone was thrilled with the move. The Bank of Montreal's Sherry Cooper suggested the central bank acted precipitously and ahead of enough solid economic data to be sure the buoyant mood is justified.
"I am disappointed with the Bank's actions, which come at a time of great financial and political uncertainty," she said. "The Bank may well have jumped the gun."
However, she added, "little harm will be done. The real question is how much more tightening is likely this year."
Her answer, too, was a full percentage point.
Mr. Rosenberg rejected the idea the move, the first increase since May, 2000, could endanger economic growth.
"Prime lending rates at 4.0% are still 100 basis points below the levels prevailing in the 1930s depression ... the tightening will hurt the economy about as much as a mosquito bite on an elephant," he said.
But retailers weren't so sure. Mark Cohen, chief executive of Sears Canada Inc., told analysts on a conference call that "it will put some brake on [sales of] big-ticket items."
But Mr. Rosenberg said there remains room to raise rates further, and said there is evidence in the Bank's own comments yesterday to back him up. The central bank referred to the "substantial" stimulus that remains in place and said it was only "modestly reducing" the amount of stimulus, he pointed out.
(资料来源：国家邮报)更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net