你一举说中了现在房市的特点。 -joyzhou(快乐小JOY) @SF湾区华人论坛:SF湾区枫下论坛 The Rolia Forum of San Francisco

枫下家园 / 住房话题 /
tor
Toronto Area

星期五，不太忙，大家再聊一聊吧。我知道这是老话题了，而且没人能说得准，但是还是想听听各位的意见。 -nomatter(how i tried); 2004-11-19 {302} (#1988835@0)
今天早上，metro today上有一小条消息是royal bank对房产市场的分析。说toronto的房产市场正在cooling down。数据显示价格同比上升4.1%，成交同比下降6.1%，new listing继续增加。负担指数维持在38.4% with 1956.20 monthly cost by average。
我正在买房子，目标主要是新房子（楼花），是不是要hold on呢？大家给点建议吧。

Everyone has his own opnion. One thing for sure, you should never truse newspaper. -simmersnake(步履无声); 2004-11-19 (#1988922@0)

但是官方评论绝大多数说房价还要涨，只有很少数评论登在像METRO这样的小报上才说出了真话。METRO报几年前在很多事情上的预测都非常准确地应验了，如租房市场、加元走势。。。几个月前，METRO有一篇分析CONDO行情的文章，本人非常佩服。 -deers(森林王); 2004-11-19 (#1988993@0)

。。大意是什么？ -zippo(O.M.G.); 2004-11-19 (#1989041@0)
没买房吧,等到1块钱一幢的时候在买, -sz648(土匪头子); 2004-11-19 (#1989046@0)

赫赫，房价要是真到了一块钱一幢的时候，就更不会有人买了。肯定是出问题了，大家都要搬离这个城市。美国有个地方就是这样情况，二万块可以买一幢。好像出了什么问题，当地居民纷纷搬走。 -deers(森林王); 2004-11-19 (#1989080@0)

也想知道。大概说一下好吗？ -sheeta(sheeta); 2004-11-19 (#1989050@0)

主要是说 -deers(森林王); 2004-11-19 {142} (#1989110@0)
多伦多CONDO市场还会有房产商继续投入，是因为看好加元对美元上涨(METRO报登那篇文章的那天，加元还没到0。8)。详细内容，我以后有机会整理一下贴上来。

Do your own research is better -simmersnake(步履无声); 2004-11-19 (#1988924@0)

I agree. but those data are true. from the data, what do you see? -nomatter(how i tried); 2004-11-19 (#1988940@0)

Of course, the price will evetually cool down. That is the cycle of this housing market. But what you need to know is, in social psychology, people will buy when price down? or when price up? -simmersnake(步履无声); 2004-11-19 (#1988968@0)

hehe, I think 90% people will buy when the price is up and 10% people will buy when the price is down. -nomatter(how i tried); 2004-11-19 (#1989061@0)

Now 新房子（楼花) is much expensive than 1-5 years new house. -nose(近似眼); 2004-11-19 {343} (#1988959@0)
Original I want to buy 新房子（楼花) too, After I investigate the house market , I changed my minds and bought a 1-year old house inclusive all very good appliances and a lot of expensive upgrades, but the price is still much lower than the same 新房子（楼花) . Of couse it depends on which area you want to buy. I am talking about Oakville.

Thanks for sharing. -nomatter(how i tried); 2004-11-19 (#1989063@0)
downtown的condo也有同样的情况，非常近的两栋楼，现房275k期房(两年)299k,而且后者还小100尺 -zxcvb(朝天椒); 2004-11-19 (#1989231@0)
where where. -tuantuan(暴风雪); 2004-11-19 (#1989254@0)
The might because the material cost more now(e.g steels etc.) , so the same house cost more . -javaelk(Caribou@25cent); 2004-11-20 {203} (#1990339@0)
The other point I want to make here is 1yr is still much differnent from new house. You can NOT pick your own floorplan, cann't pick the colour you like ,you have to take anything in the house as it is.

I don't think so. -nose(近似眼); 2004-11-21 {743} (#1992348@0)
I searched the house only for 2 months. I almost can find any new house plan I like from the resale houses. There are too many resale houses for sale. If I buy a brand new house, maybe there are some expensive upgrades I like but I don't want to spend money on them. But now I have all of them. The owner of my house upgraded about $350000 from the builder and spent $15000 to purchase very good appliances, Carlifornia Shuttle and so on. But the price is still lower than same new house price. When you buy resale house, you have the feeling of master especially in the winter time. If the owner desperate to sell the house you can have a very good deal. But for the new house the buider is master and increase the price whenever they like.

你一举说中了现在房市的特点。 -joyzhou(快乐小JOY); 2004-11-22 {682} (#1992451@0)
虽然现在粗粗一看，房价很高，各种统计数字也似乎支持这个结论。但你发现，卖者越来越desperate地卖房了，尤其是以投资为目的的，或relocation的。微观地看，你会发现，很多人都以难一想象的好价买到了房子。

这种情况只有在resale中才能找到。要勤找。用自己的眼睛找。在resale中，买主是大爷的日子就要来了。

upgrade的钱如果很多（3，4万）那是绝对卖不回来的。很多人的upgrade都只是表面光，甚至去租些装饰品搞open house. 花不了多少钱。看着印象很好。真正值钱的upgrade不见得让你能看得出来。

总之，市场逐渐冷静和理智，谁冷静和理智了，是买家。卖家现在恐怕有点沉不住气了。现在谁都看出是高潮的尾声。

记得我的朋友6，7年前买房时，那时的房子半年内卖掉算快的。一两年卖不掉的是常事（如果价格定得不合适）。

房屋市场与其它任何经济市场一样，符合一个规律：非跌即涨、非涨即跌。没有一个市场能一直维系不涨不跌状态。 -deers(森林王); 2004-11-19 {144} (#1989026@0)
房价上涨时刚开始也是缓慢的，花了好几年功夫，到最后才疯狂冲刺；以后下跌应该也是这样的过程，先是非常缓慢的，甚至不跌不涨，过好几年，最后加速。。。

。。你这个教条主义者。。hiahia -zippo(O.M.G.); 2004-11-19 (#1989035@0)

不是教条，而是教训。举个例子，加元对美元涨到0。84，大家想到吗？如果回顾二十年历史，应该能想到，可大家只看近期不看历史。房屋市场如果能回顾二十年历史，你就不会说我教条了。没错，士家堡二十年前房子5万现在卖20万，但是， -deers(森林王); 2004-11-19 {319} (#1989058@0)
二十年前你会买士家堡的房子？注意，现在大家买房大多集中在北约克士家堡这些已被炒的热火朝天的地段。你还指望它永远热炒？就是纽约这种没有一寸空地的世界第一大城市以前房价也经历了一个很大的回调(我避免用暴跌一词，免得大家受刺激给我砖)才重新上涨冲新高。

二十年前5万是什么概念？二十年前5万投入债券或MUTUAL FOND，现在又值多少？

20年前投了5万到FUND;里去,现在应该比20万多吧, -sz648(土匪头子); 2004-11-19 (#1989074@0)

从投资角度来说，买房是最安全但收益最小的。从享受角度来说，买房也是不错的选择。这取决于两个因素：1。家里人多，租房不合算。(出租不是享受)；2。准备长期居住一个城市(10年以上)。 -deers(森林王); 2004-11-19 (#1989089@0)

这样的话，如果从保值角度考虑，未来几年都不是介入的好时机了？看来觉得要跌的人大有人在啊。有没有人继续保持乐观的？ -nomatter(how i tried); 2004-11-19 (#1989082@0)

本人,刚换了个大LOT的房子, -sz648(土匪头子); 2004-11-19 (#1989086@0)

换大房子是个不错的决定。从长期来看(20年以上)，大房子比小房子要远远容易升值(保值)。我的观点，有钱应该买大房，没钱别去买小房。 -deers(森林王); 2004-11-19 (#1989096@0)

不要那么绝对嘛 -simmersnake(步履无声); 2004-11-19 (#1989783@0)
Wrong -nose(近似眼); 2004-11-22 {30} (#1992967@0)
Small houses are easy to sell.

realistic. for more and more small immigrant families are coming, small houses are acceptable to them. -samsan(ilovecanada); 2004-11-22 (#1993074@0)

Very wrong. Nothing related to size. Much more depended on other issues. -chinasmile2000(itstimetomove); 2004-11-22 (#1993879@0)

I just bought a house at North York. Return is better than saving in the bank, that is all I needed. -deeply(deeply); 2004-11-19 (#1989144@0)

if you just bought it, it is too early for you to talk about return -guest963(guest); 2004-11-19 (#1989148@0)

as long as the economic is growing, the price of house will be growing. -deeply(deeply); 2004-11-19 (#1989165@0)

Good luck. 你若不套现，有何必在乎涨跌? -zxcvb(朝天椒); 2004-11-19 (#1989227@0)

看着舒坦啊 -deeply(deeply); 2004-11-19 (#1990021@0)

您的根据是从哪里来的？ -simmersnake(步履无声); 2004-11-19 (#1989786@0)
既然这个帖子有被提上来了，就补充一点。 -deers(森林王); 2004-11-22 {452} (#1993002@0)
加拿大的房屋市场与美元汇率不无关系。以前，香港台湾人等大多带着美金来加拿大买房(包括炒房的李加诚)。另外，准备移居加国的美国人和世界各国的人、在美国工作的加拿大人，很多都是拿美金来买房。例如，几年前我遇到过一家从太平洋岛国带着美金移居加国，立马买了房子。那个时候，加元对美金多么便宜，也就等于房价便宜。
现在，加元对美金超过0。84了，谁还会那么傻把美金换成加元买房？房屋市场的投资少了海外资金来源。(请注意：房屋投资的海外资金来源占的比例并不小。) 抛砖吧！

我原来也是象你这么想. 但是错了. -joyzhou(快乐小JOY); 2004-11-22 {415} (#1993068@0)
如果加元对美元汇率持续现在这么高, 加拿大银行就会放慢加息的幅度, 甚至减息. 去年本来他们就很想加息了, 也加了一阵但又减了下来, 结果创造了比前年更低的利率.

从加拿大自身的角度, 加息压力已经很大. 但现在汇率如此, 对加拿大的出口(因为对美国出口最大)影响很大. 很多公司都要扭赢为亏了. 所以从一定程度上减缓了加息的幅度.

我们都知道, 这次房市受低利率的刺激大大超过海外资金.

所以, 加元再这么高的话, 房市可能还能挺一段.

加息看来还要继续, "The economy is operating relatively close to capacity and hence, at least over time, that means we are going to need to withdraw monetary stimulus," Mr. Dodge said. -ican(apple); 2004-11-22 {330} (#1993767@0)
能买的都买了, 不该买的也买了. 关键是过去的低利率使很多未来的消费者提前完成了消费. 那未来还有谁会来消费呢? 新移民?

考虑现在的汇率, TORONTO的房价已是很高了. 现在的市场可能是买卖双方的心理战. 看那一方可以坚持到最后. 随着利率的升高, 卖方的耐心会一点一点的被挤掉. 从现在看, 利率的走向已很明显, 只不过是快慢而已. Let's wait and see.

en, good analysis. -samsan(ilovecanada); 2004-11-22 (#1993081@0)

有几个因素不能忽略，一个是加拿大经济这几年还是很好的，连续几年的财政盈余就说明这个事实；另外象多伦多这样的移民城市，这几年总的移民数是稳定的。 -canadacanada(我来学习学习); 2004-11-19 {114} (#1989111@0)
关键的一点是看房价是不是还在家庭收入的合理比例内，从这个
角度看，多伦多很多地区的房子即使不会大涨，降也是很难的。

房价是不是还在家庭收入的合理比例内? -joyzhou(快乐小JOY); 2004-11-20 {1197} (#1990511@0)
本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛假如家庭收入6万, 买25万的房子已经相当吃力.

如果8万收入, 则30万的房子供起来已感吃力. 如果利率继续上涨, 能供的房价还得低.

现在一般的新房(独立), 什么价? 而且地段已经很远. 为了证明其价格的合理, 房地产界不断地给大家灌输以下观念:
1) 大多伦多地区已经没地了
2) 移民在几年内还会不断涌进来
3) 大多地区的房子空置率很低. 租房很难.
4) 城市正在向东,向北扩展,而且还会没完没了地发展下去.
5) 政府现在为了环保, 已经禁止再批地了. 所以房地产几年内还会猛涨, 特别是禁止再开新工的橡树岭地区.
6) 好学区会永远是好学区, 哪怕其居民组成已经100%换了血. 而且学生已经严重超编(很多人为小孩来租房), 而且, 生源已经变成单一或两种族裔了.
7) 房产永远是上涨的, 而且比投资别的领域风险小. 比如, 现在就比89年都高了. 所以不用担心, 大不了再等个15年.总会涨回去的.
8) 如果是自住, 就可以不用考虑房市的风险.
9) 很多区被有意无意地贴上了黑标签. 这些区大多在南面. 好象在那儿住就不安全了. 就学校很差了. 总之暗无天日就对了.
10) 买比租合算, 租是白出钱. 买的话, 25年后自己总算有套房.
11) 旧的房子, 里面的设计和结构不符合现在的需要了. 所以是新的好. 但不会提几年后, 当新房变旧, 要卖出时, 买主是否会拿同样的理由来嫌? 每年都有新的概念推出来.

上述观念也不是不对, 都有那么回事. 妙就妙在往往只提供局部真实信息. 得出的结论就完全不同了.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

特请具体批驳一下7、8和10，谢谢 -pasu(InTheSky); 2004-11-23 (#1994633@0)

Housing crash fear drives down prices in UK. Wondering what is going to happen here. -starwars988(stars); 2004-11-19 {402} (#1989279@0)
Here is the link.
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=583304

I agree with Deers. Nothing is going up forever. We all know housing market has its cycle of ups and downs. My opinion is if you do not have 25% down payment, you better hold back. Otherwise, if housing market crashes, you might have problem to renew your mortgage. Anyway, it is not a good time to buy.
Housing price drives low in UK. Wondering what is going to happen here. One thing for sure is housing market can not go up forever. Not a good time to buy. -starwars988(stars); 2004-11-19 (#1989615@0)
Only idiots to buy houses right now. -hoop(green); 2004-11-22 (#1993524@0)

有种说说道理嘛，口吐白末的谩骂是没意是的。 -apple_tree(苹果树); 2004-11-22 (#1993747@0)

you might see a housing market crash fairely soon, especially in California area in US and Toronto, Vancouver area In CA...Be cautious and take care. -diver4years(diver); 2004-11-23 {1080} (#1994935@0)
本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛1. House price in California was driven by high-salary generation years ago, when lots of people earned big money and didn't no care too much the price then. BUT now the situation changed, Sillicon Vally no more. To fully prove this, should l have some feeling 3 days later, in San Fransisco, we will be on vacation then.

2. Toronto apartent rental vancancy already increased, this is a fact, no a guess. Vacancy rate high is everywhere in Canada. I even see a lot of "House for Rent" sign when I drive around, this is a joke compared to the situation 3 years ago when we first moved in.

3. Vancouver is speculating the "Winter Olympics Game", I noticed there is a small real-estate company in BC, even setup a booth in Edmonton Center to sell their new built apartment house. What a joke!

Conclusion: Be Cautious, that is your hard-earned money, don't be deceived again like in the tech-buble 2000.

Quote: "Bubble is invisible to those inside the bubble -- James Dines" End Quote

Check Tokyo in 1989.

My personal opinion, don' t be stimulated. Hehe更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

@San Francisco

你一举说中了现在房市的特点。

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