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这个多伦多收入统计图准确吗?和房价吻合吗?

Click here to view the map on a full screen. Note: Some census tracts show 0 median household incomes. This means the data is not applicable based on census data. Each polygon represents a census tract, a small, relatively stable area with between 2,500 and 8,000 people, according to the Statistics Canada's definition. Every one in three newcomers to Canada settles down in the Golden Horse Shoe region in Southern Ontario. Toronto attracts them the most. They come here expecting better lives and job opportunities, most importantly, more equal treatments. To their disappointment, Toronto has been crowned as the inequality capital of Canada. The Golden Horseshoe is one of North America’s fastest growing regions. It homes 9 million people, one-quarter of Canada’s whole population. As the country’s No. 1 economic engine, this area generates two-thirds of Ontario’s and one-quarter of Canada’s Gross Domestic Product. There are nine census metropolitan areas: Toronto, Oshawa, Barrie, Hamilton, St.Catharine-Niagara, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Guelph, Brantford and Peterborough. Oshawa has the highest median household income of $85,000, and St.Catharine-Niagara has the lowest at $ 63,000. This region, particularly the Toronto metropolitan area, witnesses the biggest income gap in Canada, and the number is just appalling — the most affluent families are paid nearly 14 times more than those at the bottom. Placing the 2016 census data on a map can portrait such a discrepancy more significantly. If you look at the map closely, it’s easy to notice that the Golden Horseshoe falls into the typical pattern of how families reside geographically according to their incomes in urban areas. Toronto, the most populated area in the country with the most diverse demographics racially and financially, has a convoluted pattern. Observing its map is like looking at the colored church stained glasses. The city has the most pronounced income discrepancy in the whole region. The ten richest neighborhoods all locate in Toronto, and five neighborhoods among the ten poorest are in here as well. Researchers from the University of Toronto wrote in their report that Toronto is “a collection of islands segregated by income.” In Toronto, a family struggling financially may find that their neighbors across the street have a lifestyle so luxurious and upscale that they seem from different worlds. This is particularly the case in downtown Toronto: neighborhoods with incomes 40 per cent below the median live adjacent to those whose incomes are 40 per cent above the median. Most lower-income families, except those still trapped in their dilapidated and outdated residence in downtown, have been pushed to the edges of Toronto, forming a buffer zone between the ultra-rich in the core of the city and the well-off living in suburbs. The satellite cities around Toronto reflect how families in North America distribute in accordance with their economic status: the cities remain poorer than their surrounding counties. In cities such as Brampton, Mississauga, Hamilton, Oshawa, Barrie and Kitchener, the low-income families all reside in the inner cities, accessing to limited living space, resources and opportunities. The further away from the cities, the richer families become. The suburbs abounded with high-income families have become more affluent.   ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Technical notes: Data are available through the Statistics Canada. You can find the analyzed data and code on my Github page.
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  • 枫下家园 / 枫下觅巢 / 这个多伦多收入统计图准确吗?和房价吻合吗?
    Click here to view the map on a full screen. Note: Some census tracts show 0 median household incomes. This means the data is not applicable based on census data. Each polygon represents a census tract, a small, relatively stable area with between 2,500 and 8,000 people, according to the Statistics Canada's definition. Every one in three newcomers to Canada settles down in the Golden Horse Shoe region in Southern Ontario. Toronto attracts them the most. They come here expecting better lives and job opportunities, most importantly, more equal treatments. To their disappointment, Toronto has been crowned as the inequality capital of Canada. The Golden Horseshoe is one of North America’s fastest growing regions. It homes 9 million people, one-quarter of Canada’s whole population. As the country’s No. 1 economic engine, this area generates two-thirds of Ontario’s and one-quarter of Canada’s Gross Domestic Product. There are nine census metropolitan areas: Toronto, Oshawa, Barrie, Hamilton, St.Catharine-Niagara, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Guelph, Brantford and Peterborough. Oshawa has the highest median household income of $85,000, and St.Catharine-Niagara has the lowest at $ 63,000. This region, particularly the Toronto metropolitan area, witnesses the biggest income gap in Canada, and the number is just appalling — the most affluent families are paid nearly 14 times more than those at the bottom. Placing the 2016 census data on a map can portrait such a discrepancy more significantly. If you look at the map closely, it’s easy to notice that the Golden Horseshoe falls into the typical pattern of how families reside geographically according to their incomes in urban areas. Toronto, the most populated area in the country with the most diverse demographics racially and financially, has a convoluted pattern. Observing its map is like looking at the colored church stained glasses. The city has the most pronounced income discrepancy in the whole region. The ten richest neighborhoods all locate in Toronto, and five neighborhoods among the ten poorest are in here as well. Researchers from the University of Toronto wrote in their report that Toronto is “a collection of islands segregated by income.” In Toronto, a family struggling financially may find that their neighbors across the street have a lifestyle so luxurious and upscale that they seem from different worlds. This is particularly the case in downtown Toronto: neighborhoods with incomes 40 per cent below the median live adjacent to those whose incomes are 40 per cent above the median. Most lower-income families, except those still trapped in their dilapidated and outdated residence in downtown, have been pushed to the edges of Toronto, forming a buffer zone between the ultra-rich in the core of the city and the well-off living in suburbs. The satellite cities around Toronto reflect how families in North America distribute in accordance with their economic status: the cities remain poorer than their surrounding counties. In cities such as Brampton, Mississauga, Hamilton, Oshawa, Barrie and Kitchener, the low-income families all reside in the inner cities, accessing to limited living space, resources and opportunities. The further away from the cities, the richer families become. The suburbs abounded with high-income families have become more affluent.   ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Technical notes: Data are available through the Statistics Canada. You can find the analyzed data and code on my Github page.
    • 分布图应该是准确的,平均房价已经是中等收入人家的十倍,在此基础上再翻一番就得是二十倍了。
      • 我一直觉得从具体数据分析,才有意义。图上很多华人聚居区,家庭收入在10-15万,税后大概8-12万,100万的房贷,2%利率每年的还款近5万,利率升到4%每年的还款要6万多。如果这个估算靠谱的话,现在的价位缺乏支撑。 +4
        • 分析靠谱 +3
          • 怎么靠谱?有的家庭月饭费2000+,有的家庭全部月开销2000-
            • 这个例子貌似也不很靠谱,饮食文化和消费习惯各家未必相同,有的家庭对吃比较看重,有的比较随意简单...同样是华人家庭和差不多的收入水平,饮食开销相差也有大的...
              • 勒裤腰带买房的应该都差不多
        • 我是觉得现在买投资房,目标如果是前十年那样翻番,比较有挑战性,因为如你所说,均价两百万的房市没有足够的支撑。如果不指望翻番,在目前的价位买进,很难维持正现金流,所以比较尴尬。
          • 我在比较两方面的风险。一方面是不上车央行大量灌水的风险,另一方面是如果通胀抬头央行升息的风险。难啊!
            • 自住房不用想,就是买买买。投资房不要买贵的,这么简单是事有什么好分析的,一个错误的理由只能推出错误的结论。 +4
              • 自住房也有买大买小的考虑。“投资房不买贵的”,是说现在价位高先不买?还是说挑便宜的买?如果挑,还是应该挑地段好的买。
            • 在我自己是看房子增值的可能性有多大。房子如果不增值,房租又不能保持正现金流,就是消费而不是投资。如果觉得房子会增值,那么央行的利率不一定需要太过在意。
              • 你说的没有正现金流是按首付多少比例计算的? +1
                • 根据楼上文心雕码兄的四万还款额算的。
              • 房子是否值和央行的利率是直接相关的。现在房价涨,主要是因为利息低。
                • 看你怎么看。2000年左右,利息好象是8%,但是大家还是在买房。假如大多区房子的均价在现在基础上再翻一番,哪怕只是2%的利率,也会把70%/80%的人price out。
                  • 非常符合统计数据。2020年房价大致是2000年的3倍,其中一半来自减息,利息2%时同样的还款在8%时只能贷到一半;另一半来自家庭收入的增长,二十年来加拿大家庭收入增长了80%+
                    • 换句话说要支撑房价在目前基础上翻番需要两个条件,居民家庭收入提升100%,贷款利率归零或者是零下。因为从二十万涨到40万和从一百万涨到两百万,虽然都是翻番,但是当量不同。
                      • 居民收入翻番指的是买得起房的那部分人而不是所有人,现实是高收入人群收入增长很快,想翻番不是难事。利率根本不需降到零,因为有海外资金涌入支持。
                        • 有两个问题:1。均价两百万的投资房,需要什么样的租金来维持,什么样的群体可以负担保持正现金流的租金?2。即使是当下的房主换房升级,那么水涨船高,出手的房子谁来接手?
                          • 分租2-3家。要么房东明着干,要么租客也会偷偷的干。
                            • 独立屋整租给一家人好,分租毁房子
                              • 赚钱不易。如果均价两百万,租金六七千也许都不能持平。有多少家庭能够承受这么高的租金?
                                • 老外租的,华人谁舍得每个月付这么高的租金。
                          • Oakville 200万的房子可以租到5000一个月,整租给一家人.
                            • 能持平吗?贷款额低还可以
                              • 肯定盈利,租金每年要交税。房子买的早,100万出头买的。
                                • 但是现在去买一栋两百万的房子做投资房,同样的租金,还能赚钱吗? +1
                                  • 每个人的情况都不一样,这个问题只有你自己能回答。
                            • 如果房价在目前基础上再增值一倍,这样的房子的租金就得涨到一万,普通房子de平均租金得五千,最低收入者只好睡马路了
                              • 低收入的可以租apartment.
                                • 如果房子在现在基础上平均增值一倍,到两百万,condo不随着增值的理由是什么?如果condo跟着增值,那么低薪阶层不是同样是租不起?谁又来提供房东的现金流? +1
                                  • 租远一点的apartment,政府也会帮助他们的,不会没地方住
                                    • 许多人住downtown 并不一定是为了热闹繁华,而是负担不起或者不愿增加交通工具,公交费用之类的开销。住远一点有可能挣的最低工资全都花到路上了。 +2
                                      • 老荡是个好同志,时刻关心着弱势群体 +1
                                        • 老汤头脑清醒,不忽悠人,用实际情况理性讨论。 +1
                                          • 我不同意老荡的分析,经常是看一个点,看不到面。但是老荡是个好同志。
                                            • 理性讨论的都是好同志。
                                      • 可不, downtown住的全是穷人
            • 你的分析里算漏了家庭资产总量对房价的影响及升息的上限, +2
              华人区收入不高但是家庭资产量(首付)很高,只要一点收入就够供很大的房子,若干年后他们升级换房同样是这个情况,外加富有的亚洲新移民带来的资金,所以不能用简单的工资收入测算他们对房价的支撑力,另外按目前的经济架构利息是不可能超过3%的,对房贷加息的担忧是多余的。
              • 你前面说的家庭资产很有道理,但是利息不超过3%很难说。
                • 你要是关注最近几年美国金融市场发生的大事就知道我为什么说3%是顶点了,也可以搜一下我的旧帖对这个问题的分析
          • 我们这小镇,一百年房龄小二层楼,开价32万五千,来了11个offers. +1
            • 要看历史价格。2016/17年的价格是多少?
              • 二十万。 +1
                • 那这个涨幅是很大,比2016/17年的的高点还要高出50%多。
                  • 我们街上带ravine的房子近三千呎,去年65万卖的,同街上不带ravine的2018年31.5万。
                    • 你是哪个小镇?我要去那买投资房
                      • 同问
        • 当然房价还能涨,上海都是30万家庭收入的人买1千万的房子。而且中国的贷款利率比加拿大要高一倍。上升的前景很大 +1
          • 对国内不了解,贷款怎么做的呢?能不能多聊聊?
          • 这个牛吹大了。有30万买1000万的房子,但是人家都是20,30年前小房换大房一步步上来的,这些是非常特殊的
            • 1千万也就80个平方,还是使用面积。生两个的,又要父母带的已经是最小的面积了。就算换房,30万收入背6百万贷款也是大量的。 +1
        • 你的估算非常不靠谱,一看你就没买过房。具体你能贷多少款银行早就给你把好关了。你这点收入银行不会给你贷100万的。有一个东西叫stress test,就是要你的收入在高息的时候还能撑起你买的房价。 +4
          • 那你说说年收入15万的家庭,能贷款的额度是多少?
            • 80万左右 +2
        • 家庭收入15万,贷款也就能贷75万,没首付的话,semi都买不到了。
          • 估计士嘉堡还有100万以下的邦戈隆
          • 没首付,家庭收入30万也不行呀。。。
            • 买保险就可以降低首付。
              • 降低, 能降到0?
                • 好象只要5%就可以。前几年火的时候据说有0首付的。
        • 黑社会控制的市场不能常理分析 +3
        • 贷100万的都是投资,大部分人自住房贷款早还清了。
          • 影响房价的不是大部分人,而是一小部分在市场上交易的人。就像现在房价上升,不是大部分人现在重新买房推高的价格,而是一小部分买家卖家决定的。 +3
    • 我这样分析了十年, 踏空了十年。在中国, 如果有人同样分析, 就踏空了三十年。这样分析, 就像买股票只看pe值, 那不要说特斯拉, 苹果谷歌微软股价都应该半价。这个市场要投资赚钱, 太理智是不可能的。 +8
      • 既要分析,也要行动,是不是?
        • 现在股票已经在高价位了, 你是买入还是持现金观望?苹果谷歌可能有回调, 但值不值得长期买入持有?把股票苹果谷歌换成房子, 答案会有不同吗? +1
          • 如果把房市当作股市,规避风险的话,要分几次入市。先买小的,过几年再换大的。安全些,不过也折腾了点。
            • 普通投资者在股市里好像应该是买入并长期持有。